$90/barrel oil is still on the way....... |
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Superglide Ken
Grand Potentate SGK Joined: 17/March/2004 Location: Canada Status: Offline Points: 4868 |
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Posted: 02/April/2005 at 12:38am |
We missed getting this price this winter due to the warmer than average conditions, but we will be seeing this price in the months ahead. The spring driving season is just ahead and oil will be going up in response to this alone, and the Chinese are not using any less of it. They don't have to. Their currency is pegged to the US dollar, so as it falls so do their cost of production. This is increasing demand for oil, not decreasing it.
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Inventor of the Teflon Wand Glide and the Turboteck Rotary Air Duct Cleaners for TMs.
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nightrider
Marketing Master Joined: 12/March/2004 Status: Offline Points: 4656 |
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Ken, I know that you're not a stupid man and perhaps alot more insight as to what is going on in the world today, I must admit that I too think that the day in soon when oil hits even $ 100.00 American a barrel. If it wasn't for the Arabs holding the price back it would be there at this moment...........Allow me to tell you why short term ( Now to the next 5 years ) it will never even reach the 65.00 or 70.00 dollar mark. If that should happen it would create a world economic crash and the American dollar would plummet against all world currencies, the Euro would be worth so much that their economy would crash not being able to sell their goods abroad, the States would cancel all trade and depend on internal products.........but the kicker is that the Arabs have over 75 % of their total net worth tied up in American investments..........would you want to lose 75 cents on every dollar you have Nightrider |
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Dennis Conner
SGK Basher Joined: 11/October/2004 Status: Offline Points: 640 |
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KEN......
OPTIONS HAVE TIME LIMITS!!! The longer out you think the move will be the more you pay...a LOT MORE!!! OF COURSE oil will hit 90 bucks...could be 30 years from now just due to moderate inflation...YOU HAVE TO TIME THE MOVE!!!
I believe I asked nipples a while back what options he thought were the ones to buy...(I'm not even going to speculate if he actually bought them or not, because I'm 99.99999% sure he didn't)
I believe he said April at 50 bucks! They were already 2 bucks in the money at that time, with a LONG time premium added into the cost. That said, I bet he still hasn't made any money at all if you figure in the price he would have paid if he actually bought them! His hypothetical trade is actually under water still! He won't tell you that, but I WILL!!!
Good thing you really don't invest...it saves you money!
Give up kenny!!!
Edited by Dennis Conner |
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Superglide Ken
Grand Potentate SGK Joined: 17/March/2004 Location: Canada Status: Offline Points: 4868 |
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In constant 2005 dollars, we were already there in 1981 when oil was selling in the mid 30 dollar per barrel range, Nightrider. The world did not crash then. We will be there again soon. It will slow things down, but the world will adjust and the price will stick this time. Why? Because this time DEMAND has outpaced SUPPLY, and world production of this commodity has permanently peaked, while demand is ever growing in the Chinese and Indian markets are just getting started buying and owning autos, with much more demand to follow.
Edited by Superglide Ken |
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Inventor of the Teflon Wand Glide and the Turboteck Rotary Air Duct Cleaners for TMs.
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John L
Carpet Cleaning Guru Joined: 29/November/2004 Location: I'm Right Here! Status: Offline Points: 4013 |
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Why not invest then???? |
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Dennis Conner
SGK Basher Joined: 11/October/2004 Status: Offline Points: 640 |
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What is the next option pick ken?
Month and strike price please.
How much are you losing on your april options? I bet you haven't lost a dime...cause you don't have any...good move buddy!
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Superglide Ken
Grand Potentate SGK Joined: 17/March/2004 Location: Canada Status: Offline Points: 4868 |
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As if I would tell you Chuck. I will tell you that I did make money on the last one though, but not as much as I thought I would.
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Inventor of the Teflon Wand Glide and the Turboteck Rotary Air Duct Cleaners for TMs.
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nightrider
Marketing Master Joined: 12/March/2004 Status: Offline Points: 4656 |
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Ken, what in the world does 1981 have to do with the world today, the world does not even exist as it did in 1981, Look where Russia was then, look how China was divided then, look at the American stand on global defense, look . look, look.....STOP reading all these experts advise on where to invest because and what's going to happen cause if they really knew they would keep it for themselves.............you probably think Gold will go up to $ 1,000 an ounce too, although it did back in the 80"s it won't again until many ,many years nightrider |
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Superglide Ken
Grand Potentate SGK Joined: 17/March/2004 Location: Canada Status: Offline Points: 4868 |
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Gold will be past $1000 per once by next year Nightrider, which I am sure will surprise the hell out of both you and many others that don't see it coming. In answer to your post above, it will take $90 oil as measured in 2005 dollars to equal the $40 oil that was sold in 1981 in purchase power parity. That is what I meant. Why is gold going past $1000 this time around? Because the super spike in oil prices that is coming this year will set off the greatest inflation that the USA has ever seen. This was the trigger for the last great bout of inflation that took off in the early 70's when oil quadrupled from $2 to $8/barrel! This time the move is much more serious. Oil was at only $20/barrel a couple of years back and is going to at least $90/barrel this time. Not only is it going up by 4X again, but the dollars are much greater, which will have a much greater effect. Not only that, but the US goverment is running record budget shortfalls. The combination of these 2 events coming together means the US dollar is going to crash very shortly to the extent that even our loonie(Canadian Dollar for you American readers) will be worth more than a US dollar before this year is out. The fall in the value will be so great that all commodity prices as measured in US dollars will surge upward as inflation runs up to record levels.This of course will cause the stock market to crash, just like happened last time in the 70's. Only major difference this time is the market was only at 1000 last time, and is 10,000 now with many baby boomers nearing retirement. Panic will set in when they see the market crumbling fast and this will accellerate the fall as they try to get their money out. After they don't get it out in time, they will try to sell their homes, causeing the first fall in total US home prices in history. They will have no choice though, cause with the investments gone in the stock markets, panic will make many try to take the money out of their homes instead, causing a record amount of homes to go to market, pushing down prices. Yes, oil going to $90/barrel will be a much bigger deal than many people expect because they don't see the big picture as to what it is going to trigger like I do. This is the perfect situation for Gold to make it's major run upward, which it will. If you miss it, you will never get another chance . This is a once in a lifetime event that is coming, and very soon.
Edited by Superglide Ken |
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Inventor of the Teflon Wand Glide and the Turboteck Rotary Air Duct Cleaners for TMs.
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nightrider
Marketing Master Joined: 12/March/2004 Status: Offline Points: 4656 |
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Ken, thanks for all that info.........now let's look at this with a little realism and try to focus on 2005, let me know if what I gathered from you is correct.......... Dec.2005.........GOLD @ $ 1,000 PER ONCE Dec.2005.........Oil @ $ 90.00 PER BARREL If these 2 items are true, then tell me what the value of the American dollar will be in Dec. 2005 What will the Euro be worth. What will Silver be worth. How will this effect, COPPER, ALUM., BRASS, What will the Canadian dollar be at that time. What will inflation be like. What will interests rates be. What will real estate be worth. Will there be peace on earth. I would like an answer for all please, preferrably short ones. Nightrider
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Superglide Ken
Grand Potentate SGK Joined: 17/March/2004 Location: Canada Status: Offline Points: 4868 |
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YES and YES to the first two questions.
Euro...........$2 US+ Silver.........$50+ Other metals...........much higher Cdn Dollar..........$1.10 US+ Inflation...............20% + Interest rates..........20%+ Prime Real Estate.........Where it is now. It takes longer to fall(Next Year) Peace on Earth? .............It never has existed. Will be getting worse.
SGK
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Inventor of the Teflon Wand Glide and the Turboteck Rotary Air Duct Cleaners for TMs.
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nightrider
Marketing Master Joined: 12/March/2004 Status: Offline Points: 4656 |
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You forgot the value of the American Dollar, I need that one to make the equation balance Nightrider |
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Superglide Ken
Grand Potentate SGK Joined: 17/March/2004 Location: Canada Status: Offline Points: 4868 |
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To know that, you have to state in relation to what. It can only be measured in relation to another currency or commodity. Since Gold is going to more than double in price however, and it moves opposite to the dollar, you could say that I expect it to lose about half it's value within a years time. I am not sure if it will fall that fast by December however, though I would not rule it out if oil goes higher than $100/barrel by then, which is a possibility.
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carpetolagist
Newbie Joined: 02/April/2005 Location: Canada Status: Offline Points: 31 |
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Ken, the reason you can't or won't answer that question directly is because $ 1000 Gold and $100./Brl Oil would force the American dollar to Monopoly Money..........The world would have to come to it's rescue and declare a one world currency, with the Euro being that currency and thus arises the United States of Europe to be a power house, Russia & China would align themselves, United States would stand alone, Canada would ride on someones shirt-tales, Isreal would stand alone with the United States as an ally, War would be on everyones lips, and we would still be getting 8 cents on all commercial work. TED Edited by carpetolagist |
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